NILAI TUKAR: Suatu Analisis Jangka Pendek
The two most important features of any international monetary system are the exchage rate and the payments balance. To explain how an exchange rate change over time, we have to undestand the factors that shift the expected return schedules for domestic (rupiah) deposits and foreign (dollar) doposits. The factors that shift the expected-return schedules are domestic interest rate, foreign interest rate, relative price level, import demand, export demand and money supply. For the purpose of analysis, the study was based on secondary time series data obtain from 2000:9 to 2001:12. The result of this study shows that only three variable hae significantly effect on exchage rate fluctuation. They are domestic interest rate, foreign interest rate and money supply. All of these variables have positif relationship with exchange rate fluctuation. Increase one of these variables have leads a depreciation of rupiah. The Sosial-political isues hae more efeect in determination of exchange rate fluctuation.
Key Word: Exchange Rate, Expected Return, Social Economic Condition
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